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Casino 12 July 2024

Don't Fall Into The Trap!

Avoiding The Gambler's Fallacy

Have you ever thought that slot must be about to payout because it hasn’t for a while? Or have you ever believed that a particular number was sure to come up in the lotto because its last appearance was a long time ago? Yes? Then you may well have fallen into the trap of the gambler’s fallacy! So what is the gambler’s fallacy, and how can you avoid it? It’s time to find out!

A man, on his phone, reading about how to avoid the gambler's fallacy.

Avoiding the Gambler’s Fallacy

  • WHAT IS THE GAMBLER’S FALLACY?
  • ROULETTE – EVERY SPIN IS RANDOM
  • SLOTS – YOUR MACHINE ISN’T “DUE”
  • CRAPS – ROLL WITH THE ODDS
  • BACCARAT – A GAME OF PURE CHANCE
  • LOTTERIES – IGNORE “HOT” AND “COLD” NUMBERS
  • HOW TO AVOID THE GAMBLER’S FALLACY?
  • BET SAFELY AND AVOID THE GAMBLER’S FALLACY

WHAT IS THE GAMBLER’S FALLACY?

One common trap that many punters have found themselves falling into is that of the gamblers fallacy. This is the misplaced belief that past random events will have an influence on future outcomes, and thus they bet accordingly. Unfortunately for many of these punters, past random events do not have any impact on future outcomes, therefore these bets are often irrational and lead to disappointment. At Lottoland Casino, we don’t want you to fall into the same trap, so here are some examples of how the fallacy can manifest itself in some of the worlds most popular casino games.

ROULETTE – EVERY SPIN IS RANDOM

Roulette is a classic table game with a design and gameplay and has kept casino-goers entertained for generations. Even today punters will stand beside the spinning wheel, analysing results in the misguided belief that this will help them to predict future outcomes. For example, if you watch the ball drop on a. black number ten times in a row then you may be convinced that a red number is “due” next and place your bet accordingly.

However, you must keep in mind that every spin of the roulette wheel is a random event and the odds of the ball landing on red or black remain the same for every spin. Whether the black has appeared once or fifty times in a row, the previous outcomes do not influence the next, making your belief that red is “due” completely unfounded!

SLOTS – YOUR MACHINE ISN’T “DUE”

Slots are another fertile breeding ground for the gambler’s fallacy. We have all heard the stories of the opportunists who circle the casino floor, watching other players pump their coins into the machine to no avail. When the players eventually give up, these opportunists strike, jumping onto the slot that hasn’t paid out for a while, with the expectation that a payout is imminent, just because it hasn’t happened yet. Similarly, some players of online slots may eye up the progressive jackpots, thinking that as they get beigger and bigger they are more likely to pay out.

For these opportunists the sad truth is that they too have fallen victim to the fallacy. They are driven by the belief that the slot is “due”, when in reality an intricate algorithm controls the slots random number generator (RNG), to ensure that the outcome of the next spin is completely independent of the previous one. Slot machines do not have a memory, and your odds of hitting the jackpot are the same, regardless of how long it has been since it last paid out.

CRAPS – ROLL WITH THE ODDS

In Craps, onlookers are often victim of the gambler’s fallacy. Imagine for a moment that you are caught up in the excitement of craps game. The shooter is rolling high number after high number, and you start to believe that this can’t continue. Surely a low number is due next?

This is another example of the gambler’s fallacy. Again, every roll of the dice is independent from the last, so the odds of rolling any particular number remain the same. Whatever happened in previous rolls will not, and can not, have any impact on the outcome of future ones.

BACCARAT – A GAME OF PURE CHANCE

Fans of baccarat are not immune to the gambler’s fallacy either. In this game, often considered to be a game of pure chance, it is possible that you may witness the Banker win ten hands in a row. You may then be tempted to place a bet on the Player, rather than the Banker, in the belief that surely their luck will change and the tide will turn.

This is another misguided notion! Just like with roulette and craps, each hand in baccarat is an independent event. The probability that the Banker or the Player will win will remain the same for each hand, unaffected by previous events.

LOTTERIES – IGNORE “HOT” AND “COLD” NUMBERS

It is important for you to know that the gambler’s fallacy isn’t limited to the casino floor, it also appears in lotteries – and has done for centuries! Many people will carry out intense research before picking their lottery numbers, believing that “cold” numbers – those that haven’t been drawn for a long time – are more likely to be picked soon. Others will want to avoid “hot” numbers – those numbers that have been drawn recently and often.

In reality, “hot” and “cold” numbers are no more likely or less likely to be drawn than any other. Lottery draws are completely random events, with each number having an equal chance of being drawn, regardless of past results. The idea that some numbers can be “hot” or “cold” is the classic manifestation fo the gambler’s fallacy.

HOW TO AVOID THE GAMBLER’S FALLACY?

Avoiding the gambler’s fallacy begins with understanding the nature of randomness in a casino. It is important that you understand and acknowledge that these games are designed to produce independent outcomes. Once you accept that, then it is logical that each event, whether it’s a roll of a dice or a spin of a roulette wheel, is fresh event with its own set of probabilities – completely free from influence from previous results.

It is also a good idea to educate yourself about the odds in the games you decide to play. Understanding how RTP works will help understand the house edge in certain slots. Similarly, knowing which casino table games have the best odds will help you to set your expectations accordingly. Understanding that the odds remain constant and unaffected by previous outcomes can can help you make informed, rational decisions – avoiding the trap that a certain outcome is “due”.

Setting yourself a strict limit, and sticking to it, is also key to avoiding the fallacy. If you have established a set budget for your play then you will remain in control, and avoid chasing losses in the erroneous belief that a future win is “due”. In a similar manner, it is crucial to maintain a logical mindset when gambling.

By approaching each game with the knowledge and understanding that it is unaffected by previous outcomes, you best protect yourself from falling victim to the fallacy. Indeed, if you find yourself believing that a specific outcome is imminent due to previous results, or you are exceeding your limits to chase losses, then perhaps the time has come to take a step back and make use of some of the safer gambling tools that are on offer.

BET SAFELY AND AVOID THE GAMBLER’S FALLACY

Essentialy, avoiding the gambler’s fallacy means placing bets with logic, not emotion. The highs and lows of winning and losing can cloud judgement, leading to bets being placed that would otherwise be seen as illogical. Remembering that each game is a separate event, governed by chance will help you to make rational, logical choices and avoid the trap, and the pitfalls, of the gambler’s fallacy.

 

T
by Tom
Tom
» Read all stories from Tom

What I Cover: I am always intrigued to discover how lotteries from around the world can seem so different. Thanks to this interest, you will find me writing about the histories, traditions and records of lotteries from every corner of the world!

I am also an avid sports fan, so from time to time I will also cover in-depth guides to help you understand how sports betting works.

My Background: I have been working in the industry since 2020. In that time I have written countless articles related to lotteries, sports, casinos and the history of gambling.

Journalistic Ethics: My role is to help you navigate the world of lottery and sports betting with as much ease as possible. This is why you will find my articles informative, accurate, up-to-date and helpful.

Contact Me: I'd love to hear from you! Leave me a comment under any of my articles and I will reply as soon as I can!

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Avoiding The Gambler's Fallacy - Lottoland UK

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Prize Tier Information

PowerBall & MegaMillions
Tiers 1-3 are subject to 38% reduction as per T&Cs. Tier 1 winning bets are paid out as a 30 year annuity or discounted lump sum at Lottoland's election.

Payout Information

US Power & US Millions
Tier 1 winning bets are paid out as a 30 year annuity or discounted lump sum at the player's election.

Prize Tier Information

SuperEnalotto

Tiers 1-3 for winning bets are subject to 20% reduction as per T&C's.


Prize pool breakdown

El gordo (Christmas Lotto)

The total Christmas Lotto prize pool, that is to say the total cash up for grabs for all prizes, across its 193 series comes to £2.3 billion*.


When you bet with Lottoland, you’re in with a chance for:


First Prize: £3.5 million*

Second Prize: £1 million*

Third Prize: £0.4 million*


And additional 15,000+ prizes!


When you Double Your Jackpot for the Christmas Lotto, winning bets DOUBLE for not just one, not just two, but the THREE highest prizes!

*subject to currency fluctuations


Prize pool breakdown

El Gordo de Verano

El Gordo de Verano features a prize pool of €120m (approx. £103m*), that is to say, the total cash up for grabs for all prizes.


When you bet with Lottoland, you’re in with a chance for:


First Prize: £1,77 million*

Second Prize: £530,000*

Third Prize: £177,000*


And a host of additional prizes up for grabs!


*subject to currency fluctuations


Prize Tier Information

Keno 24/7
Jackpot is determined on stake amount and the quantity of numbers selected.You can bet from as little as £1 on one number for a maximum prize of £3,or bet up to £10 on ten numbers for a maximum prize of £10 million.

Prize Tier Information

Kenow
Jackpot is determined on stake amount and the quantity of numbers selected.You can bet from as little as £1 on one number for a maximum prize of £1.50,or bet up to £10 on ten numbers for a maximum prize of £1 million.

Prize Tier Information

Multi Keno
Jackpot is determined on stake amount and the quantity of numbers selected.You can bet from as little as £1 on one number for a maximum prize of £0.84,or bet up to £10 on ten numbers for a maximum prize of £430,000*

(*subject to currency fluctuations).

Prize Tier Information

German Keno
Jackpot is determined on stake amount and the quantity of numbers selected.You can bet from as little as £1 on TWO numbers for a maximum prize of £5.37,or bet up to £10.75 on ten numbers for a maximum prize of £830,000

(subject to currency fluctuations).

Prize pool breakdown

El Niño


First prize is €2,000,000 (approx. £1,800,000*),

2nd prize is €750,000 (approx. £680,000*)

3rd prize is €250,000 (approx. £230,000*).


If that wasn’t enough, there are another 37,000 awards up for grabs. That gives you a great 1-in-3 chance of landing a prize.


*subject to fluctuations